Imperialism, the Crisis Deepens – Reasons for a qualified optimism

“Monopolies, oligarchy, the striving for domination and not for freedom, the exploitation of an increasing number of small or weak nations by a handful of the richest or most powerful nations — all these have given birth to those distinctive characteristics of imperialism which compel us to define it as parasitic or decaying capitalism.” Vladimir Lenin 

Being an anti imperialist, and a communist activist, requires large stores of resilience, hope, and optimism, along with scientific socialist certainty that the contractions inherent in late stage decaying monopoly capital will eventually lead to its demise, and the replacement of the bourgeois state with a dictatorship of the proletariat with a planned socialist economy. The rationale of imperialism is to hold back independent economic development outside of the imperial core, to keep the global south poor and open to exploitation, impoverished by the rapacious extraction and repatriation, to the imperial core, of super profits. The method used for this parasitic practice is the export of monopoly capital, driven by repeated and deepening crises of overproduction fuelling the need for profitable investment in countries captured by the imperialist economic system. Imperialism has faced many crises and no matter how serious, it has always found ways to restore balance in the system. My contention is that none of the previous solutions will any longer work, and that time is fast running out for the imperialist economic system.

The Great Depression that began following the Wall Street crash of 1929 was only ended with the outbreak of World War 2, and the resulting massive industrial and economic destruction it caused. While imperialism and its military enforcer NATO continue smaller, and always highly asymmetric, wars, these relatively small scale wars will not destroy sufficient productive capacity needed to rebalance the economic system. World War is no longer a rational option with the threat of civilisational annihilating nuclear weapons. Extracting super profits from a heap of radioactive dust is impossible. So while the contradictions inherent in Imperialism drive it towards war as strongly as ever, the certain apocalyptic outcome of World War in our nuclear age makes it a radically different proposition from War in 1939.

In aftermath of World War 2 the Bretton Woods settlement brought a period of growth and stability to the imperial core for a couple of decades, however, cracks in the system became apparent when profitability began declining from the mid 1960s, and in August 1971 Bretton Woods was effectively all over, as President Nixon was forced to end the convertibility of the dollar into Gold, starting the era of fiat money. The falling profit rates combined with the two 1970s oil price shocks led to a period of rising inflation and stagnant growth, stagflation. The capitalist ruling classes, in a vain attempt to overcome this tendency of the falling rate of profit and escape the crisis, adopted the economic and political ideology of neoliberalism.

The election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain in 1979, and Ronald Reagan in the US the following year brought in its wake the hegemonic dominance of neoliberalism. The consequence in Britain was the speeding up of the repeal of the social democratic concessions given to the working class in the post war settlement, concessions that were largely a response to the huge economic successes of the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin during the depression that had preceded the War, and the threat to the ruling class of a surge in support for communism. State owned industries were sold off, corporate taxes were cut, attacks on both the welfare state, and organised labour, particularly after the defeat of the miners in the 1984-85 following a yearlong heroic struggle, extensive deregulation of financial services, and credit as the neoliberal dogma, largely taken from the economic and political theories of Fredrich von Hayek, was implemented.

Neoliberalism brought a temporary upturn in profitability, largely at the expense of the working class, as levels of unemployment soared. Imperialism got a further boost with the collapse of socialism across Eastern Europe, and the counter revolution that brought down the Soviet Union, which enabled a spacial expansion of imperialism in to new territories for monopoly capital to loot. During the 1990s globalisation was intensified, US led imperialism was able to extract increased levels of profit, ratcheting up the detrimental economic effects on the working class, monopoly capital was invested in the outsourcing of production to lower cost locations such as China, allowing another round of deindustrialisation. All of these factors gained the imperialist system extra time.

The eventual and predictable total failure of neoliberalism, along with the revival of Russia, bringing an end to the ability of parasitic monopoly capital to loot the country, under leadership of Vladimir Putin, ensures that these ‘solutions’ are like World War, no longer an option for attempting to ameliorate unavoidable future crises of overproduction. Neoliberalism had worked for the ruling class for a limited time, until the bursting of the US housing bubble triggered the subprime mortgage crisis, contagion from which caused the Financial Crisis of 2008 which heralded the longest recession in the imperialist era, since that time the economies in the imperial core have stagnated despite attempting every measure in the orthodox economic locker, including quantitative easing, and an extended period of near zero interest rates. The ongoing economic malaise, caused by the biggest ever crisis of overproduction in history, as the cumulative impact of the computer revolution, and consequent rapid technological advances that had been taking place since the late twentieth century took effect. In Britain economic conditions were made worse as the David Cameron led coalition government responded to the crisis by imposing austerity; only an economic illiterate could possibly think that you can cut your way to economic growth. A final proof, if one were needed, of the deepening crisis in the imperialist economic system is the recent imposition of tariffs on imports to the US by the Trump administration, an admission that globalisation has failed; this has fuelled panic in global stock markets, and an air of general political confusion. From an anti imperialist perspective, this quote from Mao seems apt,

“Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent.”

The 2014 US planned colour revolution in Ukraine removed elected president Yanukovych. The overtly anti Russian stance taken by the successor government, and the horrific events at the Trade Union building in Odessa, provoked Russia into holding a referendum in Crimea that resulted in a huge majority vote for Crimea re-joining Russia. The provocation of Russia with horrific pounding of the civilian populations of Russian Donbas cities, left President Putin no option, and Russia launched its Special Military Operation. The imperialist world imposed coordinated rounds of economic sanctions on Russia, including the confiscation of Russian money deposited in western central banks, and provided Ukraine with vast quantities of arms and financial support. The imperialists aim? To bring the Russian economy to its knees, to leave it, in the words of the unhinged Ursula Von Der Leyen, in tatters, and precipitate regime change and the removal of President Putin from office, followed by the installing of a new Yeltsin type government, opening the door to Russia once again being wide open for looting by monopoly capital. This strategy failed spectacularly, the economic war was lost comprehensively, with European economies badly hit by high energy prices, and the military defeat of Ukraine/NATO now certain. Russia will never allow the looting of their nation, another door has permanently closed.

We are fast approaching an historical conjuncture at which imperialisms tool box is found to be empty. The imperialist economic system once again has a serious competitor block in the shape of BRICS. This competition is not between rival economic systems, as all BRICS members except China are capitalist, but is a spacial contest, largely taking place in the global south. Imperialism needs spacial expansion, but we are witnessing the opposite, the shrinking of the geographical space available to it for the extraction of super profits, as US led imperialism is objectively losing. This represents an ongoing dynamic movement in the balance of forces that will contribute to the inevitable collapse of the imperialist system.

So where do we go from here? A concept derived from Mao Zedong’s “People’s War”, is that of strategic equilibrium, this is achieved when there is a shift in the balance of forces, political and economic, caused by divisions amongst the ruling class, and a rising class consciousness amongst the masses of the working class as a result of an extended period of deteriorating material conditions, and the failure of all of the mainstream political parties to offer any solutions, as there are none to be found within the liberal/capitalist ideological framework. At this time revolutionary politics, communist parties, will be able to operate in political spaces previously denied to them, gaining traction amongst workers, and have a genuine possibility of building mass support. These conditions are not yet with us, we are still at strategic defensive, a period where revolutionary politics struggles to gain traction, existing in a hostile atmosphere. All the signs point one way, the time is approaching when the moribund facade of the parasitic imperialist system will finally crack wide open, and when it does we must be ready. There is no guarantee that the economic dislocations that will hit at this time will push the masses towards socialism, the forces of extreme reaction will also gain in strength. As Che Guevera famously remarked,

“the revolution is not an apple that falls when it is ripe. You have to make it fall”.

So amongst all of the economic gloom, hostile repressive actions by the ruling class, following many decades of struggle to even make ourselves known to the masses, now is a time for a qualified, but realistic, sense of optimism. Imperialism can no longer use the methods and tactics it previously employed to reset the system. So with hard work and resilience, we must build our movement and be organised and ready for when the balance of forces finally and decisively shifts, in the words of Mao Zedong:
Dare to struggle and Dare to win!